Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 2 ¼ cents higher ($8.58 ½), August 2 ¼ cents higher ($8.65 ¼) & Nov 2 ¾ cents higher ($8.85 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $1.1 higher ($313.4), August $1.1 higher ($314.7) & Dec $1.2 higher ($321.9)

July Soybean Oil closed unchanged ($27.38), August 1 pt lower ($27.51) & Dec 1 pt lower ($28.02)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 714.6 K T. vs. 450-650 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop Progress – Planted – 60% vs. 56% expected vs. 88% 5-year average – Emerged – 34% vs. 73% 5-year average

Soybeans and soybean meal bounce after registering new two-week lows on Monday. There are some ideas we won’t see as big an increase in soybean acres as originally thought due to the idea that a few more corn acres got planted albeit beyond the “prevent plant” date. We also saw some inter-market spreading that involved buying soybeans vs. selling feed grains. Since feed grains started rallying it has been popular to sell soybeans against the long feedgrains. Weekly export inspections were solid looking vs. expectations. 412.6 K T. of the 714.6 K T. that was inspected went to China. This was viewed as positive since they weren’t cancelled. The “bear” side of the equation continues to be that both the US and the World remain flush with soybeans and the USDA should remind us of that on tomorrow’s supply-demand update.

Like corn most interior soybean locations that are not tied to the riverways are reporting higher basis levels vs. one week ago. The midday Gulf posting appears to be easing from what we saw in the latter part of last week. The interior soybean meal basis along with its export basis has a firm bias. The talk is a “tight “supply. Crush margins continue to be good looking but with the recent break in the flat price cash soybean movement has slowed to a crawl. Soybean and soybean meal spreads finished flat upfront while old crop sees minor losses to its new crop.

Even though soybeans and soybean meal finished higher I was not impressed due to the inability of sustaining the midday rally. Daily price charts continue to suggest lower prices and today’s minor bounce is not changing that outlook. It remains my opinion we are going to see a continuation of buying feed grains vs. the selling of oil seeds.

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/11

July Soybeans: $8.50 ($8.40) – $8.75

July Soybean Meal: $308.0 ($304.0) – $320.0

July Soybean Oil: $27.00 – $27.85

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