Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 10 cents higher ($8.88), August 9 ¾ cents higher ($8.94 ½) & Nov 9 ¾ cents higher ($9.15 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $2.2 higher ($321.7), August $2.1 higher ($322.9) & Dec $2.0 higher ($329.9)

July Soybean Oil closed 46 pts higher ($28.02), August 47 pts higher ($28.16) & Dec 46 pts higher ($28.68)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 255.9 K T. old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – 275.2 K T. new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 112.5 K T. old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – 41.5 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 5.1 K T. old crop vs. 8-25 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Wednesday’s short covering continues!! It was just a few weeks ago it was the corn market that had the greatest concern over lost acres due to excessive water. With that said the idea then became we would get additional soybean acres. That rationale is now being questioned given forecasts for Illinois and points east that call for flooding type moisture over the next couple of weeks. This forecast has the trade ignoring the bearish fundamental outlook that the USDA presented us with just the other day.

It seems the interior soybean basis is taking its cue from the cash corn market as many locations are touting stronger basis levels. Illinois River locations don’t do much due to its ongoing logistical problems. Processors continue to show the best basis levels despite Board crush margins edging lower. The Gulf continues to scratch and claw its way higher due to continued slow originations. The recent spate of short covering has soybean spreads mostly steady to fractionally better upfront while gaining on the deferred. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior are running steady to higher as cash soybean movement remains slow. The Gulf for meal reads steady to firm as well. Meal spreads ran the route of soybeans spreads; steady to slightly better upfront and gaining on the deferred. The improvement in the soybean and soybean meal spreads can be attributed to the current round of short covering.

July soybeans appear ready to challenge its resistance at $9.10. November appears geared to challenge its resistance at $9.30. July meal looks like it wants to see what its resistance at $230.0-$235.0 looks like. Even soybean oil is getting into the act as it has moved off of its support at $27.00 and now looks like it could test $29.00.

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/14

July Soybeans: $8.75 – $9.10

July Soybean Meal: $316.0 – $330.0

July Soybean Oil: $27.70 – $28.35 (?)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.