March Soybeans closed 2 cents lower ($9.23 ¼), July 2 cents lower ($9.49 ¾) & Nov 2 cents lower ($9.62 ¼)
March Soybean Meal closed $1.7 lower ($312.2), July $1.7 lower ($320.0) & Dec $1.9 lower ($324.7)
March Soybean Oil closed 27 pts higher ($30.30), July 28 pts higher ($30.92) & Dec 29 pts higher ($31.48)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 929.4 K T. vs. 1.000 – 1.400 M T. expected – 20.459 M T. to date vs. 33.407 M T. year ago
The big news of the day is the announcement from the USDA that they will release the “delayed” January data on February 8th. This will include final soybean production data (yield, acres, etc.) and December Quarterly Stocks. They will also include an updated Supply-Demand report.
It was a mixed fundamental news day for the soybean complex. Bean oil continues to move higher influenced by an ongoing higher palm market as well as good demand from the bio-diesel sector. Some weather heads are suspecting we may see a pattern change for Brazil as we move into February; areas that have been too wet drying out and areas that have been too dry getting some relief. I am still hearing from private Brazilian consulting agencies that their crop is still modestly shrinking. Weekly export inspections were deemed disappointing when comparing actuals vs. expectations. The meal market continues to act as a drag on soy prices as the US continues to get undercut from Argentine offers.
The interior cash soybean market, despite the anticipated logistical problems, reads mostly steady to lower. The Ohio River is the only river location that is reporting a higher basis. The Gulf has a slightly firmer tone with emphasis on “slightly”. Soybean spreads were steady upfront and softer as time goes on. Offers to sell cash soybean meal continue to look for a home and given the market’s price action it’s not finding any. Meal spreads were mostly steady/mixed on the day with only fractional changes being noted.
Strength in bean oil offsets the weakness in soybean meal allowing soybeans to stay alive. Daily momentum indicators are suggesting the bean oil market is overbought. The 14-day RSI for bean oil reads 75. These two indicators when combined suggest this is the strongest the bean oil market has been in well over one year. Soybean meal continues to be a tight trading range market. What takes out of this 5 month old trading range remains to be seen. Soybeans continue with their 5 month old sideways to grind higher. Given the potential news out there (US/China trade talks & USDA catch-up report on February 8th) my bias is for higher prices over the near term. I’m not looking for anything gigantic; just a challenge of the mid-low $9.40’s (March).
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/29
Mch Soybeans: $9.17 – $9.33
Mch Soybean Meal: $310.0 – 316.0
Mch Soybean Oil: $29.60 – $30.50 ($30.75)
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