Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 10 ¼ cents lower ($9.03 ¼), August 10 ¾ cents lower ($9.09 ½) & Nov 11 ½ cents lower ($9.28 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $5.1 lower ($316.9), August $5.3 lower ($318.2) & Dec $5.9 lower ($325.0)

July Soybean Oil closed 4 pts higher ($28.37), August 3 pts higher ($28.50) & Dec 4 pts higher ($28.98)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – Old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Soybeans continue to retrace from recent highs from the idea that more soybeans are getting planted as we come up to the prevent plant date, June 20th. Soybean meal continues to be the “dog” of the products while bean oil holds itself together. Bio-diesel demand for bean oil continues to be quite good. I know the WH said yesterday that they will meet with the Chinese at the G-20 summit next week but soybean traders remain rather wary of anything coming out of this meeting other than talks may continue after the meeting between the two leaders. Both sides appear to have taken a hardline stance as to what they are willing to give vs. what they are not willing to give.

Interior soybean basis levels remain mostly steady with a firm undertone vs. recent postings. Nearby Board crush margins have taken it on the chin over the past two weeks; down a solid 35 cents. The basis at the Gulf for soybeans continues to be almost erratic. Recent strength has softened in response to logistical problems easing but also the lack of market making export demand. Soybean spreads show a steady to firm bias out to January 2020 and then the bull spreads fall apart. Soybean meal spreads aren’t much different.

Previous resistance for July soybeans had been $8.90 to $8.95. We appear headed for that level. If the soybean market is going to realize support the soybean meal market has to as well. $314.0 to $310.0 appears to be decent looking support for July meal. In recent days soybean oil has been trying to go it alone with its rally but now this market appears to be running out of steam.

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/20

July Soybeans: $8.95 – $9.15

July Soybean Meal: $314.0 – $322.0

July Soybean Oil: $27.85 – $28.75

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.