Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 12 ¼ cents higher ($9.15 ½), August 12 ¼ cents higher ($9.21 ¾) & Nov 11 ½ cents higher ($9.41)

July Soybean Meal closed $6.1 higher ($323.0), August $6.0 higher ($324.2) & Dec $6.0 higher ($331.0)

July Soybean Oil closed 22 pts higher ($28.59), August 22 pts higher ($28.72) & Dec 22 pts higher ($29.20)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 571.6 K T. old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – 200.0 K T. new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 109.6 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – 37.7 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 4.5 K T. old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

USDA announces 189.0 K T. of soybeans sold to unknown – 126.0 K T. old crop, 63.0 K T. new crop

Weather and the unknown around soybean acres support the soybean complex on Thursday. It was just a few weeks ago the trade was pondering how many more soybean acres would we see and now it’s a distinct possibility we could lose some acres. Weekly export sales for old crop soybeans were actually pretty decent based on expectations. Excessively wet weather for the next 3-5 days will hamper the tail end of soybean planting. Today was the last prevent plant date for soybeans for much of the Midwest. Starting soon (next couple of days) trade talks will start up once again prior to next week’s meeting with the heads of state between the US and China. Going forward the soybean complex trade will continue to be torn between a large old crop carryout/new crop carryin, the unknown around acres, growing conditions, relatively poor export demand and the unknown around the US/China trade talks.

The interior soybean basis has taken on a mixed look Thursday. The Ohio River down noticeably, Illinois River easing from recent attempts to firm and processors standing in. The Gulf continues with its erratic day to day swings; now firming after the last couple of days of easing. Does today’s better than expected weekly old crop sales have anything to do with this? Soybean spreads ran flat out to January. Soybean meal spreads saw similar price action.

Both soybeans and soybean meal challenged suspected support levels Wednesday night and held. I have to think that now soybean planting is in question for its final days prices should continue with a relatively firm bias. If I didn’t know better the entire US Ag sector is getting speculator/public attention and that’s not bearish.

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/21

July Soybeans: $9.02 – $9.25

July Soybean Meal: $318.0 – $328.0

July Soybean Oil: $28.20 – $29.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.