Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 9 ¼ cents lower ($8.76 ¼), August 10 cents lower ($8.79 ¾) & Nov 9 ¾ cents lower ($8.98 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $1.3 lower ($303.5), August $1.5 lower ($305.7) & Dec $1.6 lower ($313.0)

July Soybean Oil closed 32 pts lower ($27.66), August 32 pts lower ($27.81) & Dec 33 pts lower ($28.26)

The soybean complex tried to bounce Monday night but it went nowhere and the selling resumed. Monday’s hog story out of China about their losses being much greater than originally reported hangs over the market. The effects of this are being seen with lower loadings out of both Argentina and Brazil. Despite crop conditions not improving on Monday’s update it is still my belief that the recent weather is beneficial to crop development. After this week I have to think soybean planting will come to an end. Looking ahead to next week’s Supply-Demand report; it is my understanding WASDE will use the new acreage numbers. Whether or not they use their June yield remains to be seen. If they do and use the same demand numbers I could see a new crop carryout projection around the 800 million bu. level.

As the interior soybean basis levels move from July to August it gets almost confusing. Some of the roll shows a better basis while others and easier basis. Processors still show the best basis levels despite the recent sell-off in crush margins. The Gulf is clearly lower with its roll and I have to think that is due to the river now flowing freely and a general lack of export demand. Nearby soybean spreads ran mixed out to January and then bear spreading took over. Meal spreads saw a fractional better bias which may be due to a slowdown in crush given the break in the margins.

November soybeans appear headed to the $8.90 level which I believe should act as some near term support. This was a level that acted as an interim breakout to the upside on the inter-day charts back on June 12th. If August meal can fill its Memorial Day weekend gap at $302.6 I have to think it would represent a relatively low risk short term buying opportunity.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/03

Aug Soybeans: $8.70 – $8.90

Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.10

Aug Soybean Meal: $302.5 – $312.0

August Soybean Oil: $27.60 – $28.25

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.