Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 3 cents higher ($8.75 ¼), August 3 cents higher ($8.79) & Nov 3 ¼ cents higher ($8.97 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $0.4 higher ($304.2), August unchanged ($305.8) & Dec $0.1 lower ($312.3)

July Soybean Oil closed 42 pts higher ($27.86), August 43 pts higher ($27.99) & Dec 48 pts higher ($28.48)

Weekly Soybean Condition & Progress – 53% GE (-1%) vs. 55% expected vs. 71% year ago – Planted – 96% vs. 96% expected vs. 99% 5-year average – Emerged – 90% vs. 98% 5-year average – Blooming – 10% vs. 32% 5-year average

Soybeans too see a two-sided trade on Monday. Developing weather ideas (hot & dry) was the initial support. Questions around the development of some tropical activity in the Gulf muted some of the “hot & dry” talk. The notion that crop conditions would show improvement acted as resistance. If crop conditions do improve the bulls of the market will tout just how late the crop is. The lower than expected acres from the 28th lent support when futures tried to extend last week’s sell-off. No one is holding their breath on the idea we are going to get anywhere soon with the resuming US/China trade talks. Ideas for the upcoming supply-demand report featured lower carryout data for both old crop and new crop but the numbers are still quite large. Bean oil acted as product support getting back a large portion of their Friday losses. I’m never too enthused about soybeans going higher if bean oil is the product leader.

I’m only seeing a couple changes with the interior soybean basis vs. late last week. The Ohio River is 1 cent better and Burns Harbor improves another 5 cents. The Burns Harbor basis is now 30 cents better vs. where it was last Wednesday. The overall trend in the interior soybean basis is firm as movement is slight at best. The Gulf has firmed somewhat vs. the sharp selloff it saw early last week. Soybean spreads ran steady to fractionally weaker out to March of 2020. Not much happens with interior soybean meal cash offers. Meal spreads saw just fractional improvements.

Soybean price charts continue to see a gradual grind lower; this holds true for both old crop and new crop. I have to think August soybeans should begin to realize support the closer they get to $8.70 and Nov beans closer to $8.90. soybean meal should begin to realize support once they fill the Memorial Day weekend gaps; just another $3-$4 lower. Soybean oil is barely holding on to a uptrend channel that started back in early May. Anyone trying to be friendly this market will not want to see closes below last Friday’s low.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/09

Aug Soybeans: $8.70 – $8.90

Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.10

Aug Soybean Meal: $302.5 – $310.0

August Soybean Oil: $27.70 – $28.40

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.