Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 10 ¼ cents higher ($8.93), August 8 ½ cents higher ($8.94 ½) & Nov 8 ½ cents higher ($9.12 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $1.2 higher ($309.1), August $1.5 higher ($310.7) & Dec $1.6 higher ($317.5)

July Soybean Oil closed 9 pts higher ($27.97), August 8 pts higher ($28.09) & Dec 7 pts higher ($28.56)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-350 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Other than some short term weakness in the Tuesday night session soybeans maintained a steady to firm tone for the majority of the day on Wednesday. Projected carryouts, both for old crop and new crop, are expected to be coming down. It’s not that the numbers will be outright bullish it’s the fact that “the pile” is shrinking. US trade negotiators appear to be confident that China will be buying US Ag products in the near term to show good faith as talks resume. Last but not least weather considerations have come back into the spotlight given Monday afternoon’s unexpected downturn in soybean conditions. None of the forecasters have a good handle on the tropical storm’s path once it gets inland. The state of Iowa has some particular focus as it missed out on last weekend’s rain event around the Corn Belt.

The interior soybean basis too shows a firm tone as producer selling remains quite slow. Producer questions around their new crop and its development going forward has limited their selling interest. The Gulf firms but only marginally. August to March soybeans spreads ran mostly steady on the day and then spreads went from March forward. Interior offers fro cash soybean meal were mostly steady with some selected weakness. The Gulf appears most steady with its bids and offers for soybean meal. Meal spreads ran mostly steady on the day; similar to that of soybeans. The trend in crush margins is maintaining its lower trend.

Soybean price charts show follow through buying from Tuesday’s suggested interim buy signal. Tomorrow’s supply-demand data should show the pile is shrinking but carryout numbers will still be large. It is my thought that if we are to see upside follow through it will take combinations of weather as well as some Chinese good will buying. I show room to run higher, another 20-25 cents, before we run into some significant looking technical resistance. Soybean meal has a similar looking picture.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/11

Aug Soybeans: $8.75 – $9.15

Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.35

Aug Soybean Meal: $304.0 ($302.5) – $318.0

August Soybean Oil: $27.50 (?) – $29.00

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