Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 3 ¼ cents higher ($8.96 ¼), August 4 ½ cents higher ($8.99) & Nov 4 ½ cents higher ($9.17 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $2.5 higher ($311.6), August $1.7 higher ($312.4) & Dec $1.4 higher ($318.9)

July Soybean Oil closed 10 pts higher ($28.07), August 9 pts higher ($28.18) & Dec 9 pts higher ($28.65)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 132.2 K T. old crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected – 129.5 K T. new crop vs. 50-350 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 44.9 K T. old crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected – 7.7 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 8.5 K T. old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – 0.1 K T. new crop vs. none expected

The USDA report does suggest the soybean pile is indeed shrinking. Projected carryout numbers are still large but with the majority of the growing season still in front of us the soy complex was able to garner some support. The trade appears to be questioning the USDA soybean acreage given reports of late plantings.  It was just the other day I received reports of soybeans still being planted in Ohio. It would be helpful if China would do some good faith buying as trade negotiations have resumed. To date there has been no indication of this happening despite US trade negotiators suggesting this will indeed happen. Private opinions still suggests the ASF situation remains far worse vs. what China is admitting. With this said it makes sense that we have not seen any Chinese good faith buying.

The majority of interior soybean locations continue to show a firm basis. Movement remains minimal as it seems many producers are waiting to see if China does any good faith buying. The Gulf is stable but firm. Export demand remains slight but there are fears the forecasted tropical storm in that area will disrupt what loadings that are scheduled to occur over the near term. Not a lot happened with the soybean spreads today as they ran fractionally mixed. Offers to sell cash soybean meal remain nothing to write home about. Meal spreads had a very slight bullish bias.

Soybean and soybean meal price charts appear to be in line to challenge the technical resistance that was established 2-2 ½ weeks ago. The soy complex will continue to lag the strength in the feed grains until we see a stiffer weather challenge and/or something out of the Chinese in terms of good faith buying. Price charts do show we have established some decent looking support below current levels from earlier this week.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/12

Aug Soybeans: $8.83 – $9.12

Nov Soybeans: $9.05 – $9.30

Aug Soybean Meal: $308.0 – $318.0

August Soybean Oil: $27.80 – $29.60

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.