March Soybeans closed 4 ¼ cents lower ($9.19), July 4 ½ cents lower ($9.45 ¼) & Nov 4 ¼ cents lower ($9.58)
March Soybean Meal closed $0.4 lower ($311.8), July $0.4 lower ($319.6) & Dec $0.3 lower ($324.4)
March Soybean Oil closed 19 pts lower ($30.11), July 18 pts lower ($30.74) & Dec 21 pts lower ($31.27)
Monday was an inside day of Friday and today was an inside day of Monday. I get the impression some of those wanting to be bullish are getting a bit tired of playing the waiting game (US/China trade talks). Recent rhetoric from those in the media that have an opinion on this topic is leaning with a negative bias suggesting the US will not get everything it wants. If true what will the US settle for if they settle for anything at all? Another private crop scout out of Brazil reduces their crop to 114.0 M T. As I mentioned the other day some in the weather department are suggesting pattern changes may occur late in the first week of February into the second week of February; drier areas wetter and the wet areas drier.
Not much happens with the interior soybean basis. Landlocked locations are mostly steady while river locations have a steady to slightly easier bias. the Gulf continues to show a sideways to grind higher with emphasis on the “grind”. Soybean spreads ran steady all the way out to November. Offers to sell cash soybean meal are no worse that steady as some locations show very minor improvement. The Gulf market for meal edges up $1.00. Meal spreads saw little to no change out to September.
Soybean oil appears to be acknowledging its state of overbought. Soybean meal continues to be range bound just below midrange. The short term meal price action suggests we could see a pop if we can get above $315.0 (March) while price action below $309.0 could get you closer to $305.0. The soybean chart appears to be running out of steam with its recent 2 week old rally. I still think there be one more attempt at higher prices but I have to admit its difficult to deal with these tightening daily ranges.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/30
Mch Soybeans: $9.13 ($9.09) – $9.30
Mch Soybean Meal: $310.0 – 316.0 Mch Soybean Oil: $29.60 – $30.50 ($30.75)
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