Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 14 ¾ cents lower ($8.64), Sept 15 ¼ cents lower ($8.69) & Nov 15 ¼ cents lower ($8.81 ½)

August Soybean Meal closed $2.1 lower ($298.2), Sept $2.2 lower ($300.5) & Dec $2.3 lower ($305.4)

August Soybean Oil closed 56 pts lower ($27.75), Sept 56 pts lower ($27.88) & Dec 60 pts lower ($28.23)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. -50+250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 150-450 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-200 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected

USDA announces 104.5 K T. of soybeans sold to unknown – 0.5 K T. old crop, 104.0 K T. new crop

It was a combination of factors that took the soy complex lower on Wednesday. Failure to reach any agreement with the recent US/China trade talks, benign forecasts going forward, unexpected 408 deliveries and technical considerations (chart picture breaking down) all worked together to push prices lower. I’m also thinking that month-end considerations were working here as well. Conspiracy theories were running rampant during the day in regard to 400 of the deliveries against the August contract; they came out of the COFCO Chgo facility.

The interior soybean basis shows a mixed look on Wednesday. The Ohio River is noticeably lower. The Illinois River is trying to recover some recent losses. The Mid-Miss is staying soft looking. No change is being noted from processors. Board crush margins saw noticeable improvements as products losses were not as severe vs. those in the soybean market. Not much happens with the Gulf as it maintains its recent soft look. Soybean spreads were mostly unchanged Sept to Jan and then fell off going forward. Cash meal offers in the interior continue to show a weak look. The export market for cash meal continues to be nothing special. Meal spreads were a shade better upfront but softened as one went forward.

For the short term soybeans read a bit oversold. Daily data does not read oversold. It’s basically the same technical story for soybean meal. If today was in part to a month-end dump there should be some sort of attempt to recover on Thursday, Friday. Soybean oil is a commodity of a different color as its price charts show plenty of time and price to move lower. For what it is worth the meal/oil spreads are pretty depressed looking. If you are thinking the recent sell-off in the complex has been overdone this spread may be worth a short term look-see.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/01

Nov Soybeans: $8.74 – $8.90

Dec Soybean Meal: $301.0 – $309.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $28.00 – $28.70

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.