Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 2 ½ cents lower ($8.47 ¾), Sept 3 cents lower ($8.53) & Nov 3 cents lower ($8.65 ¾)

August Soybean Meal closed $0.2 higher ($295.1), Sept $0.3 higher ($297.3) & Dec $0.3 higher ($302.6)

August Soybean Oil closed 28 pts lower ($27.46), Sept 31 pts lower ($27.56) & Dec 33 pts lower ($27.93)

Bloomberg Survey Results for August 12th – Planted Acres 80.9 million – Yield 47.4 – Production 3.786 billion bu. – New Crop Carryout 810 million bu. – Old Crop Carryout – 1.067 billion bu.

Despite the ongoing dryness in selected areas of the Midwest the soybean market could not muster anything on the upside Tuesday. It appears there is just enough moisture around in the forecasts to keep supply bulls on the sidelines. The lack of new business due to the rift with China will continue to inhibit attempts to rally. Yes, shipments have been decent the past couple of weeks but that is from old business. Soybean meal is trying to stand in but its efforts were noticeably lacking on Tuesday. Soybean oil continues to trade with the energy markets and they were lower on Tuesday.

Most interior basis levels continue to show a defensive tone. Mid-Miss locations continue to deal with high water problems. The Gulf soybean basis continues to slide. Only fractional changes were noted with the soybean spreads; if there was a bias it was steady to fractionally better. Offers to sell cash meal are quiet with no changes that I could spot. Meal spreads ran fractionally mixed out to January. August through Jan ran fractionally higher on the day. March forward ran fractionally lower on the day.

Maybe I’m out in left field but I don’t see much happening here for the next number of days. Maybe August 12th will give us something but I’m not holding my breath.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/07

Nov Soybeans: $8.60 – $8.75

Dec Soybean Meal: $298.0 – $305.5

Dec Soybean Oil: $27.60 – $28.40

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.