Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 10 ½ cents higher ($8.72), Sept 9 ½ cents higher ($8.76 ¼) & Nov 9 ¾ cents higher ($8.89)

August Soybean Meal closed $5.9 higher ($297.8), Sept $5.8 higher ($299.2) & Dec $5.9 higher ($304.6)

August Soybean Oil closed 47 pts lower ($29.17), Sept 49 pts lower ($29.17) & Dec 51 pts lower ($29.54)

Soybeans and soybean meal catch a bid from what may appear as the trade rift between China and the US softening. The tariffs against China that were to go into effect have been delayed until December. I think more important is the economic upheaval that is happening in Argentina. Argentine producers are holding onto their soybeans as a hedge against their economy completely blowing apart. This supports the meal market as Argentina is the top exporter of soy products.

The interior soybean basis has a mixed look to it as processor bids read steady to better while river bids read steady to lower. Not much happens with the export basis. Soybean spreads ran mixed to slightly better on the day. Offers to sell cash soybean meal in the interior appear to be softening while export offers read a touch higher. Meal spreads ran mostly steady all the way out to the spring, early summer of 2020.

Soybean charts are rather constructive looking. The “however” is we have yet to deal with the resistance that begins with the $9.00 level. For as shaky as the meal market looked after Monday’s close it looks that good after today’s close. Today’s meal trade registered an outside day with closes above Monday’s highs. Resistance for Dec meal doesn’t start until $310.0-$312.0. What about bean oil? Prior to today bean oil had been the product market’s leader as it broker out the upside after nearly three months of sideways. today’s trade in bean oil is suggesting a reversal of that move as it scored an outside day involving new highs and closed below yesterday’s low. The meal/oil spread reversal today is trying to confirm its time to start buying meal and selling bean oil.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/14

Nov Soybeans: $8.80 – $9.03

Dec Soybean Meal: $301.0 – $308.0 ($310.0)

Dec Soybean Oil: $29.25 – $30.05

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.