Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

September Soybeans closed 13 ¼ cents lower ($8.54), Nov 13 ¼ cents lower ($8.66 ½) & Jan 13 cents lower ($8.80 ½)

September Soybean Meal closed $2.9 lower ($292.0), Oct $2.9 lower ($293.9) & Dec $3.1 lower ($297.2)

September Soybean Oil closed 45 pts lower ($28.68), Oct 45 pts lower ($28.80) & Dec 47 pts lower ($29.04)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.158 M T. vs. 600 K – 1.100 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Condition & Progress – 53% GE (-1%) vs. 54% expected vs. 65% year ago – Blooming – 90% vs. 96% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 68% vs. 85% vs. 5-year average

The attempt to rally on Friday was squashed today from the weekend rains that swept through the central Midwest. Not all of the dry areas saw appreciable moisture from this system but many areas did. Forecasts for this week talk about additional moisture for similar areas that were impacted this weekend. In other words we’re making soybeans in many areas that were questionable as recent as last week. Weekly soybean export inspections were good looking but one has to remember those are from old sales. The Pro Farmer tour has a difficult task at hand. They are pod counters and it is being reported they are not finding that many pods but they report plants are still blooming which represents future pods. What pod counts they are able to do appear to be noticeably lower than usual. We know the majority of the soybean crop is late so rains we are seeing right now is just what the doctor has ordered. The big question is still “how long will the growing season last?”

The interior soybean basis is running mixed on Monday. The processor appears to be easing back while river bids are showing some scattered improvement. The Gulf too is holding onto recent gains. The Gulf is all about recent loadouts from sales that were made long ago. It needs to be noted that new sales appear decent but no China. Soybean spreads continue to show a bearish bias. Offers to sell cash soybean meal in the interior continue to look for buyers. The Gulf, however, appears to be firming. Meal spreads ran steady to fractionally better.

Long story short – the soy complex charts look awful. Bean oil which had been the clubhouse leader is now back in the sideways price action that had dominated the trade for most of June and July. Nov beans are in minor support but the price action remains severely lacking. Today’s close matches the recent low close from August 1st. $295.0-$296.0 represents the last support for Dec meal prior to the May 13th contract low ($291.6). The way it looks now Dec meal will probably do some probing below the $295.0 level.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/20

Nov Soybeans: $8.60 – $8.77

Dec Soybean Meal: $295.0 (?) – $301.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $28.65 – $29.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.