Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

September Soybeans closed 7 ½ cents lower ($8.46 ¼), Nov 8 cents lower ($8.59 ¼) & Jan 7 ½ cents lower ($8.73)

September Soybean Meal closed $1.5 lower ($291.5), Oct $1.4 lower ($293.6) & Dec $1.6 lower ($297.0)

September Soybean Oil closed 32 pts lower ($28.01), Oct 31 pts lower ($28.14) & Dec 34 pts lower ($28.35)

Monday afternoon’s crop improvement coupled with no confirmation from China that trade talks will resume has the soybean market giving back a good portion of what it gained on Monday. The meal market eased as well and bean oil continues to move lower. It was just 2 weeks ago that Dec bean oil made a high at $30.25. Today’s low represents a break of 195 pts from that level. Weatherheads still talk about cooler than normal temps for the near term but no mention of frost. Short term weather with recent moisture is viewed as beneficial as long as there is no frost in the forecasts. New demand is nothing special as recent shipments are a result of previously contracted sales.

I’m only seeing two changes with the soybean basis locations that I track. Savanna, IL is down 8 cents and the Gulf eases by 8-10 cents from what was posted last Friday. Sept soybeans gain on November as we draw down to 1st notice day. November forward spreads were all softer. I see nothing inspiring with the meal basis; domestic or for export. Meal spreads ran fractionally mixed on the day.

Recently established technical support is honored for both soybeans and soybean meal. The “however” is that the price action is not offering much to the idea these support levels will continue to hold. If recent lows do manage to hold I’m not expecting much of a sustainable rally. It would not surprise me to see a quiet trade for the balance of the week and maybe some minor short covering going into the 3-day weekend. Without an early frost or a resumption of China/US trade talks the US soybean complex does not have much going for itself.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/28

Nov Soybeans: $8.54 (?) – $8.65

Dec Soybean Meal: $294.0 (?) – $300.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $28.10 – $28.75

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.