August Soybeans closed 10 cents higher ($8.39 ½), Sept 9 ¾ cents higher ($8.45) & Nov 9 ½ cents higher ($8.55 ¼)
August Soybean Meal closed unchanged ($329.1), Sept $0.2 lower ($328.1) & Dec $0.3 lower ($327.2)
August Soybean Oil closed 9 pts higher ($27.73), Sept 7 pts higher ($27.83) & Dec 4 pts higher ($28.13)
Flat price soybeans catch a bid from Monday nights lower than expected crop ratings. The end result for the complex as a whole was another round of Board crush margin profit taking. Soybean meal ran steady to fractionally lower on the day while bean oil ran a handful of points higher on the day. Some of the news wires may talk about some wishing and hoping for some resolve to the China/US tariff situation but I saw nothing that suggests the two sides are ready to sit down. As far as I’m concerned all we are seeing is a reaction to recent oversold conditions. Recent weather outlooks, so far, do not suggest anything too threatening to the developing soybean crop. Given the accelerated soybean crop development forecasts for late July and into the first two weeks of August will be given a hard look for any development of dryness.
River bids for soybeans continue to suggest these locations are not interested in owning any soybeans. Processors, however, are interested in soybean origination given current crush margins (despite the recent 2-day downturn). Export bids continue to sag. Soybean spreads did show some minor improvement on Tuesday but right now that looks more like short covering than anything else. I don’t see anything special happening with the domestic meal market while the export market is maintaining recent strength. Despite the feeble looking performance in the flat price meal today bull spreads were still trying to work.
Flat price soybeans honored Monday’s suggested minor upside reversal. The meal market’s similar reversal is still being honored despite the steady to fractional lower close. All that can be said for bean oil it that it is holding against Friday’s contract low. I have to think that most feel if the soybean market is going to rally further it will be due to soybean meal considerations not soybean oil.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/18
Aug Soybeans: $8.29 – $8.55
Nov Soybeans: $8.43 – $8.70
Aug Soybean Meal; $326.0 – $336.0
Aug Soybean Oil: $27.50 (?) – $28.15
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