August Soybeans closed 2 cents lower ($8.47 ¾), Sept 1 ¾ cents lower ($8.53 ½) & Nov 2 cents lower ($8.61 ½)
August Soybean Meal closed $1.1 higher ($328.0), Sept $1.3 higher ($326.9) & Dec $0.8 higher ($325.4)
August Soybean Oil closed 25 pts lower ($27.97), Sept 22 pts lower ($28.07) & Dec 22 pts lower ($28.32)
USDA announces 165 K T. new crop beans sold to China CANCELLED
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 722.0 K T. vs. 450-750 K T. expected
Weekly soybean Condition & Progress – 70% GE (+1%) vs. 68% expected vs. 57% year ago – Blooming – 78% vs. 63% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 44% vs. 23% 5-year average
It still appears the soy complex’s daily trade continues to be dominated by crush trading. Soybeans tried to rally early on the coattails of higher meal prices but once the meal rally faded the flat price of soybeans followed suit. Soybean oil appeared under the gun for the majority of the session. The night trade for bean oil tried to show a firm bias but that too faded. Palm prices could not sustain its rally of late last week. Crush margins managed to post minor gains after its recent 5-day slide. The tariff disputes with China continue as no set date has been established in an effort to iron out differences and this continues to hang over the soybean market. Growing conditions continue to be non-threatening, almost beneficial, into early August.
Interior cash soybean markets are not seeing much change. The processor continues to have the best bids out there. River bids remain nothing to write home about. The Gulf market for soybeans sits just above last week’s lows. Soybean spreads ran mixed with only fractional changes. The domestic meal market sees no changes on Monday. The export market for meal ran unchanged as well while maintaining recent strength. Meal spreads continue to show a bullish bias despite the range bound flat price.
The soybean market has been quietly grinding higher dating back to last Monday. Volume has been lackluster at best. The soybean meal market continues to be range bound; unable to follow through in either direction dating back to the 3rd week of June. Bean oil has been upflagging from its contract low 5 days ago. Nothing about the individual trade within the complex appears to be very awe inspiring other than the day-to-day trade has been relatively quiet. If push came to show I would guess the soybean market has a better chance of breaking down vs. continuing its rally. I don’t know what to do with the meal market. The flagging effort in bean oil suggests I should be selling rallies. Like corn the soybean crop ratings (bearish) and weather forecasts (benign looking) should dictate the near term direction.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/24
Aug Soybeans: $8.40 – $8.57
Nov Soybeans: $8.55 – $8.73
Aug Soybean Meal; $325.0 (?) – $333.0
Aug Soybean Oil: $27.65 – $28.40
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.