August Soybeans closed 12 cents higher ($8.89 ¼), Sept 12 ½ cents higher ($8.95 ¼) & Nov 12 ¼ cents higher ($9.05 ¾)
August Soybean Meal closed $2.7 higher ($332.7), Sept $2.6 higher ($331.0) & Dec $3.1 lower ($332.6)
August Soybean Oil closed 30 pts higher ($28.59), Sept 30 pts higher ($28.75) & Dec 29 pts higher ($29.09)
USDA announces 145.0 K T. new crop soybeans sold to Unknown
Crop ratings lower than expected Monday afternoon prompted the initial higher prices on Monday night. Tuesday morning Oil World (German based analytical/statistical group) suggested China will have to come to the US for soybeans beginning in the 4th quarter tariffs of no tariffs. Their rationale is that SA just doesn’t have enough soybeans to meet China’s demand. That kept the soybean complex relatively firm for the balance of the day. The USDA announcement of 145.0 K T. of soybeans sold to unknown didn’t hurt. I couldn’t help but notice the inter-market spreading; buying oilseeds/selling feed grains. Given the run these spreads have had it makes sense to see some evening up prior to the USDA on Friday. For the rundown of trader expectations see the attached file.
Few if any changes are being seen with interior soybean basis. I’m told crushers have amassed enough old crop soybeans to keep them satisfied until the new crop becomes available. I’m also told that Delta beans are very close to harvest. The Gulf bounces from Monday’s interim lows. Soybean spreads saw a fractional bullish bias on Tuesday. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior are looking steady to higher citing a slight slowdown in crush. Offers to sell meal for export are staying relatively firm despite not seeing any market making business. Meal spreads have been easing since mid-July as the much anticipated export business has failed to show up.
November soybeans closing above $9.03-$9.04 acts as an interim buy signal suggesting the possibility of testing last week’s high, $9.22. Soybean meal continues to honor suspected support levels that were created during the month of July. Soybean oil continues to show an upflagging effort. If I had to guess what we’ll see over the next few days – an effort to challenge last week’s highs followed by the inability to follow through which will lead to consolidation just below recent highs.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/08
Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.17
Dec Soybean Meal; $328.0 – $336.5
Dec Soybean Oil: $28.70 – $29.40
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.