August Soybeans closed 7 ½ cents higher ($8.53 ½), Sept 6 ½ cents higher ($8.57 ¼) & Nov 7 cents higher ($8.68 ¾)
August Soybean Meal closed $4.3 higher ($327.8), Sept $5.8 higher ($327.5) & Dec $5.5 higher ($328.8)
August Soybean Oil closed 25 pts higher ($28.24), Sept 26 pts higher ($28.36) & Dec 26 pts higher ($28.67)
USDA announces 142.5 K T. soybeans sold to Mexico
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 580.8 K T. vs. 600-900 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Condition & Progress – 66% GE (-1%) vs. 66% expected vs. 59% year ago – Blooming – 96% vs. 92% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 84% vs. 72% 5-year average
Follow through selling was seen throughout the complex Sunday night, early Monday morning. Once the day session started buying appeared in the meal market and that in turn prompted short covering in the soybean market. I have to think the buying in soybean meal is related to the USDA world numbers that showed product stocks coming down despite the surge in projected ending soybean supply. Adding to some of the buying in soybeans is the idea the weekly condition report will show another downgrade in condition. Yes, it’s been dry in many places this past week. Forecasts going forward suggest a better moisture pattern for much of the Midwest as we move into the latter part of August. For what it is worth weekly soybean export inspections were deemed no big deal as they fell just shy of the low guess of expectations.
Despite some interior river soybean basis showing slight bumps higher the overall look shows the interior soybean basis maintaining a defensive posture. Processors, too, show a defensive look. Improving Board crush margins were featured in today’s trade. Because the idea is that the US producer will try and store as many soybeans as he can this will eventually get the processor to start reaching for soybeans. This is going to be the year of strong crush margins until SA comes back on line.
So – how good is the $8.50 level for supporting Nov beans? If the meal market can continue to perform such as it did today $8.50 will continue to act as support. If the meal market fails then so will soybeans. New crop meal (Dec) has a pseudo looking double bottom against the $321.0 level ($321.5 to $321.1 to be exact). It will be interesting to see how the soybean market performs over the near term if the USDA downgrades the crop and then the forecasted rains appear. Charts tell me I’m supposed to be selling rallies.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/14
Nov Soybeans: $8.55 – $8.78
Dec Soybean Meal; $323.0 – $332.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $28.35 – $28.90
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