Soybeans Commentary

storck

Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 2 ¾ cents higher ($8.23 ¼), Nov 2 ¾ cents higher ($8.36) & March 2 ¾ cents higher ($8.62 ¾)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $1.4 higher ($302.1), Oct $0.7 higher ($303.0) & Dec $0.5 higher ($305.2)

Sept Soybean Oil Closed 15 pts lower ($28.03), Oct 16 pts lower ($28.17) & Dec 16 pts lower ($28.42)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – Old crop vs. 0-250 K T. expected – New crop vs. 500 K -1.000 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – Old crop vs. 50-350 K T. expected – New crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – Old crop 0-15 K T. expected – New Crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected

For the time being it looks like the soybean market just ran out of sellers. News of note was lacking. Board crush margins saw an interim sell signal which lent some support to the soybean market. We saw some minor meal/oil spreading but it should be noted that Argentina meal offers still beat the US but not by much. Short term forecasts, excess moisture for the west central Midwest, caught some discussion. There is a Chinese group in the US touring some farms in the Midwest but they agree that as long as the US and China remain at a trade impasse little will come of their tour.

Interior cash soybean markets remain ugly looking. Cash movement is not much right now but many feel there will be a storage crunch and beans will have to move. As far as the government bailout program is concerned it calls for “evidence” as to the size of one’s soybean crop. How that “evidence” is proven usually means storing your beans at a licensed facility and/or outright selling the beans. Soybean spreads ran flat on the day all the way out to May 2019 after that there was a fractional bullish bias. Despite iffy looking offers in the export meal market soybean meal spreads saw some minor improvement Wednesday led by the Sept contract. Friday is 1st notice day for Sept beans and products so it is normal to see some last minute jockeying around.

A challenge of the Nov bean contract low, $8.26 ¼, remains in the cards if not lower. Today’s attempt to correct measures to $8.20. Weekly charts, based off of the nearby Sept suggests that if $8.10 is taken out the next stop is closer to $7.75. Pay close attention to the weekly soybean meal charts. The past two years tells us sub $300 meal prices don’t last too long. As we move to month’s end and the spec trade is a noticeable short what’s out there to give us some reprieve from the ongoing sewer shot – how about some better exports?

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/30

Nov Soybeans: $8.23 (?) – $8.45

Dec Soybean Meal: $301.0 (?) – $310.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $28.30 – $28.85

 

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