Nov Soybeans closed 8 ¼ cents higher ($8.66), March 8 cents higher ($8.92 ¼) & July 9 cents higher ($9.16 ¼)
Oct Soybean Meal closed $0.7 higher ($311.2), Dec $1.3 higher ($315.1) & March $2.0 higher ($314.4)
Oct Soybean Oil closed 35 pts higher ($29.36), Dec 35 pts higher ($29.66) & March 35 pts higher ($30.16)
Speculative short covering continues prompted by fears of forecasts calling for flooding rains over the next week and a half. There are some areas that are being forecasted to see 4 inch rains and some areas above that amount. Areas that are ready for harvest yet flooded out will indeed lead to production losses. When fear leads a market in one direction or another those moves tend to exceed reasonable levels. Its hard to imagine a rally in the soybean market when many are talking about a possible carryout reaching 1.0 billion bu.
Interior cash soybean bids (basis) are reading mixed on Tuesday. Some locations are maintaining recent weakness while other locations are bumping up their bids. What is interesting to note are processors holding steady at recent weak levels. This goes in hand with the recent stability in Board crush margins. Soybean spreads upfront were fractionally better but lost to the SA new crop time slots (July forward). Offers to sell cash meal in the interior continue to look for buyers and so far they don’t appear to be finding any. The export market for meal appears to edging higher. Meal spreads had a bearish slant to them all day.
Both the soybean market and the soybean meal market appear they want to edge higher. The emphasis is on the word “edge”. Soybean Oil gives us its best close dating back to late July. I just hate when the soybean oil market is the upside leader of the complex. Historically when bean oil is an upside leader I’m supposed to look for spots to sell soybeans. Daily momentum indicators for bean oil are starting flirt with overbought.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/02
Nov Soybeans: $8.55 – $8.74 ($8.80)
Dec Soybean Meal: $312.0 – $320.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $29.20 – $30.00
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.