July Soybeans closed ½ cent higher ($8.52 ¼), August unchanged (8.55 ¾) & Nov ½ cent lower ($8.71 ½)
July Soybean Meal closed $2.6 higher ($334.4), August $2.3 higher ($332.2) & Dec $2.5 higher ($330.3)
July Soybean Oil closed 14 pts higher ($28.88), August 13 pts higher ($28.99) & Dec 16 pts higher ($29.42)
CONAB – Brazilian soybean crop 118.88 M T. vs. 118.05 M T. last month vs. USDA at 119.00 M T.
After the session’s lows were made Monday night it seemed that inter-market spreading (the unwinding of long feed grains/ short oilseed spreads) supported the market as well as the continued stout Board crush margins. The inability of the meal market to break down below recent lows helps to support the soybean market. Weather forecasts are hot and dry in the short term warm and wet in the longer term. I don’t want to get caught up in the short term weather as the more important weather for soybean development is later this month into August. On Thursday the USDA will update supply-demand. US production will increase due to acreage increases. The unknown is how the USDA incorporates the tariffs on US exports. Personally I think it will take the USDA a few months to get it right.
Interior cash soybean bids are steady at most locations, a bit better at the river. Processors continue to stand in but are not reaching for origination despite the continuing stout Board crush margins. Not much happens with the Gulf. Soybean spreads ran steady to better upfront but tailed off Jan forward. Offers to sell cash meal firmed in the domestic market and continue to improve in the export market. Meal spreads ran steady to easier upfront while gaining on the deferred.
It looks like the soybean complex will continue to be in the current short term holding pattern at least until we see what the USDA has to say on Thursday.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/11
Aug Soybeans: $8.45 – $8.68
Nov Soybeans: $8.60 – $8.83
Aug Soybean Meal; $329.0 – $336.0
Aug Soybean Oil: $28.70 – $29.40
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