Jan Soybeans closed 13 ¼ cents higher ($8.75 ½), March 13 cents higher ($8.89 ¼) & July 12 ¾ cents higher ($9.15 ½)
Dec Soybean Meal closed $1.9 higher ($304.9), March $2.2 higher ($301.0) & July $2.2 higher ($315.9)
Dec Soybean Oil closed 20 pts higher ($27.16), March 21 pts higher ($27.65) & July 23 pts higher ($28.23)
I’ve said it before but I think it needs to be said again – politics are driving the soybean market. On Monday the trade sold the market off in response to statements out of the WH of what may happen if China doesn’t come to terms with US demands. On Tuesday cooler heads prevailed and prompted short covering from those that sold the market into the hole. Additionally the meal market holds the much talked about support level; $302.0 to $300.0. Bean oil was able to give us a minor bounce after Monday’s trade selling off and closing in new contract low ground. The US and China may not come to terms at the G-20 summit but to say they won’t before they meet is like getting the cart ahead of the horse. I’ll grant you the future for better US soybean business is not looking very good given how the Brazilian crop is developing.
Not much happens with the interior soybean basis. Over the past week while I’ve been gone I’m seeing improvement as well as declines. Processors continue to stand in despite the bearish trend in Board crush margins. River locations have been easing. The Gul has been improving but I think that’s more about slow to almost non-existent movement. Soybean spreads within the current crop year continue to grind lower. Offers to sell cash soybean meal in the interior continue to be depressed looking but I will admit they have shown some fractional improvement. The Gulf too has shown some minor improvement over the past week. Despite this minor looking improvement meal spreads go the route of the soybean spreads; very quiet while grinding south.
We’ve got some broad triangulation happening on the nearby soybean charts. If we’re going to break out I’m thinking it won’t happen prior to Sunday night after the G-20 summit. The meal market continues to honor suspected support but that’s all – no indication of rejection. Bean oil continues to sag, staying depressed looking. Every now and then we’ll see a short term bounce but all that has done is to alleviate periods of short term oversold. Overall I’m thinking the complex goes nowhere fast between now and next Sunday night.
Daily Support & Resistance for 11/28
Jan Soybeans: $8.66 – $8.85
Jan Soybean Meal: $304.0 – $310.0
Jan Soybean Oil: $27.20 (?) – $27.75
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