Soybeans Commentary

storck

Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Jan Soybeans closed 4 cents lower ($9.09 ½), March 3 ½ cents lower ($9.22) & July 4 cents lower ($9.46 ¼)

Dec Soybean Meal closed $1.9 lower ($310.0), March $1.6 lower ($315.5) & July $1.0 lower ($322.5)

Dec Soybean Oil closed 10 pts lower ($28.47), March 10 pts lower ($28.95) & July 9 pts lower ($29.46)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 600-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 175-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-26 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

The soybean complex gets slammed pretty hard on the day session’s opening. Fears of new China/US tensions were responsible. The Chinese executive that was arrested in Canada for extradition to the US is the latest. China is demanding her release. Just how this impacts the results of the G-20 summit remains to be seen. Overall it was not a bad day considering soybean prices at one point were down 16 cents or so and meal prices down almost $5.0. This tells me the trade still wants to be cautiously friendly in case the USDA announces a big sale to China.

Few if any changes are being noted with the interior soybean basis. The Gulf basis continues to have a soft look. Soybean spreads ran fractionally mixed on the day – Jan loses to March and May – March gains on May to August – old crop loses to the new crop. The interior meal basis is steady but soft looking. Offers to sell meal at the Gulf are maintaining their recent strength. Meal spreads ran soft all the way out to the new crop.

Soybeans challenge the Friday to Sunday night gap (came within fractions of filling it) and close noticeably above that level. Soybean meal, being the weak sister of the complex, totally filled its gap and then some; closing just a tick above last Friday’s high. Soybean oil is nowhere near filling its Friday to Sunday night gap. I will offer this – Both beans and meal need to close convincingly above Tuesday’s high to keep the current rally alive or frustration will start to set in from those that have been buyers since Sunday night.

Daily Support & Resistance for 12/07

Jan Soybeans: $9.00 – $9.20 (?)

Jan Soybean Meal: $310.0 – 318.0 (?)

Jan Soybean Oil: $28.35 – $29.25

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.