August Soybeans closed 10 ¾ cents higher ($8.29 ½), Sept 10 ¾ cents higher ($8.35 ¼) & Nov 11 ½ cents higher ($8.45 ¾)
August Soybean Meal closed $3.1 higher ($329.1), Sept $2.9 higher ($328.3) & Dec $4.5 higher ($327.5)
August Soybean Oil closed 33 pts lower ($27.64), Sept 32 pts lower ($27.76) & Dec 30 pts lower ($28.09)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 635.4 K T. vs. 300-800 K T. expected
NOPA June Crush – 159.228 million bu. vs. 159.637 million bu. expected – Soybean Oil Stocks – 1.766 billion lbs. vs. 1.807 billion lbs. expected
Weekly Soybean Condition & Progress – 69% GE (-2%) vs. 70% expected vs. 61% year ago – Blooming – 65% vs. 45% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 26% vs. 11% 5-year average
Soybean meal was the deal on Monday. The trade tried to press the meal market lower around the dawn hour, failed to follow through and that prompted the rally. Not only did the meal rally but so did the soybean market. Bean oil was the short side recipient of the meal and soybean rally despite better looking palm prices. I did not see any new news to prompt the rally other technical considerations reacting to the perception of oversold.
Interior cash soybean locations involved for export continue to have a soft look. A prominent central Illinois processor jumps his bid for beans. The Gulf continues to show its soft look from late last week. Soybean spreads continue to sag wider. August meal advances vs. Sept but that was about it. Bull spreads in meal were working early but as the flat price started to rally spreads went soft. Board crush margins were easing on the day due to the higher soybean prices.
On Thursday the soybean market gave us a very minor reversal to the upside – it failed on Friday. Today, Monday, it gives us another minor reversal but this time it involved an outside day with a higher close and better volume vs. what we saw on Thursday. The meal market scores a similar looking reversal. Tonight’s crop condition report along with subsequent forecasts should dictate further direction. (Crop conditions fall greater than expected while forecasts appear to be non-threatening)
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/17
Aug Soybeans: $8.23 – $8.55
Nov Soybeans: $8.38 – $8.70
Aug Soybean Meal; $326.0 – $338.0
Aug Soybean Oil: $27.50 (?) – $28.25
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.