Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 1 ¼ cents lower ($4.83) March 1 cent lower ($4.90) & July 1 ½ cents lower ($4.98 ¼)

December KC Wheat closed 1 cent lower ($4.06 ½), March 1 ¼ cents lower ($4.19 ¾) & July 2 ¼ cents lower ($4.38)

December Mpls Wheat closed 13 cents higher ($5.37 ¼), March 10 ¾ cents higher ($5.48 ¼) & July 9 ½ cents higher ($5.67)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 476.1 K T. vs. 300-600 K T. expected

Weekly Winter Wheat ProgressPlanted – 22% vs. 18% expected vs. 24% 5-year average

Weekly Spring Wheat ProgressHarvested – 87% vs. 83% expected vs. 93% 5-year average

Mpls was noticeably higher while KC and Chgo were slightly easier. Wet weather in the US Northern Plains and in the Canadian Prairies has created fears of low quality wheat. Overall US wheat business appears to be nothing special. Weekly export inspections I thought were nothing special. If I didn’t know better the Mpls market has begun its seasonal improvement in price vs. the Chgo market. Prior to last week this spread has been challenging historic support levels.

Interior basis levels for standard protein wheat do not appear to be doing much. The only change that I’m seeing vs. one week ago is the Ohio River 3 cents easier. The Gulf has a slightly firmer bid for HRW while SRW runs unchanged. Chgo spreads have been easing for about the past two weeks (within a longer term uptrend) while KC spreads continue to grind higher (with emphasis on the “grind”).

Dec Chgo wheat appears to be having problems (resistance) against the mid-low $4.90’s. Closes below the $4.80 level may rattle some of the recent buyers. Dec KC has been inching its way higher since the 1st of the month but it too looks like it may running out of steam. Closes below $3.99 may chase out the recent buyers.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/24

Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.75 – $4.90

Dec KC Wheat: $3.98 – $4.11

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.