Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 3 cents higher ($5.11), March 2 ¾ cents higher ($5.16 ¾) & July 2 ¼ cents higher ($5.24 ½)

December KC Wheat closed 6 ¼ cents higher ($4.25 ¾), March 5 ¾ cents higher ($4.37 ¾) & July 5 ½ cents higher ($4.56 ¼)

December Mpls Wheat closed 4 cents higher ($5.52), March 4 ¼ cents higher ($5.66 ¼) & July 4 cents higher ($5.82)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – delayed until tomorrow due to Columbus Day holiday

Weekly Winter Wheat Progress – delayed until tomorrow due to Columbus Day holiday

Weekly Spring Wheat Progress – delayed until tomorrow due to Columbus Day holiday

The trade continues to talk about the possibility of lost spring wheat bushels in the US Northern Plains and parts of the Canadian Prairies. The USDA will update US spring wheat production on Friday, November 8th. European and Black Sea prices continue to stay firm. Because US export origin is a secondary market behind Europe and Black Sea origins we take our directional cues from them. Different Ag agencies within Russia continue to hike this past season’s production. The biggest crop size I have seen so fat is 78.0 M T.; most are in the camp of 75.0-76.0 M T. As far as the US stating China will take vast sums of US Ag including wheat anything beyond token amounts will be a surprise to me (just my opinion).

Not much happens with the advertised SRW basis. SRW movement is slow and Chgo spreads continue to show a tightening bias. This trend should continue as this past season’s SRW quality remains highly suspect. The interior HRW basis is steady on the day but its trend has an underlying firm tone. KC spreads were suspect looking 6-7 days ago but have since rebounded to register new highs for the rally that started in early June.

Flat price Dec Chgo wheat continues to grind through what I see as good congestive type resistance. Dec KC wheat has yet to challenge its resistance that begins in the mid-low $4.30’s. Trendline resistance for Dec KC wheat does not come into play until the mid-low $4.40’s. I’ll be the first to admit that I’m not in step with the current rally. It has not cost me any $$$ as I have been invoking “when in doubt stay out”.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/15

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.00 – $5.16

Dec KC Wheat: $4.16 – $4.30

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.