Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 6 cents lower ($5.11 ¾), March 5 ½ cents lower ($5.18) & July 4 ½ cents lower ($5.28)

December KC Wheat closed 5 ¾ cents lower ($4.17), March 5 ¾ cents lower ($4.30) & July 5 cents lower ($4.48 ¼)

December Mpls Wheat closed 9 cents lower ($5.27 ¾), March 8 ¾ cents lower ($5.42 ½) & July 8 ½ cents lower ($5.59)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 523.2 K T. vs. 450-700 K T. expected

Weekly Winter Wheat Condition & Progress – 56% GE vs. 57% expected vs. 53% year ago – Planted – 85% vs. 87% expected vs. 82% 5-year average – Emerged – 63% vs. 64% 5-year average

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat

Flat price US wheat continues to sell off from a general lack of business. Granted weekly export inspections were within the realm of expectations but still not enough to make a market. I have to mention that Egypt just announced an overnight tender. I’m told Black Sea prices remain firm and European prices have eased ever so slightly. US prices have seen a much greater correction over the past few days. Will US offerings have a chance at tonight’s Egyptian tender or will US firms not even bother citing freight being too high?

Interior cash wheat basis for standard protein runs unchanged. The Gulf basis for SRW appears to be easing a bit while the basis for HRW remains fully steady. Chgo spreads eased with the flat price selling while KC spreads saw only fractional losses.

The best looking near term congestive support I see for Dec Chgo wheat comes in at $5.08 to $5.05.  Dec KC wheat is currently at the topside of some former resistance levels. I have to think the outcome of the Egyptian tender (prices paid & quantity bought) will dictate if US prices continue to decline or try and realize some support. One has to remember that the US market is more of a follower vs. being a leader. I guess I should say US wheat is a leader to the downside

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/29

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.10 ($5.06) – $5.22

Dec KC Wheat: $4.14 (?) – $4.26

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.