Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed ½ cent lower ($5.08 ¾), March ¼ cent lower ($5.14 ¾) & July 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.23 ¼)

December KC Wheat closed 1 ½ cents higher ($4.19 ¾), March 1 ¾ cents higher ($4.32 ¼) & July 1 ¼ cents higher ($4.49)

December Mpls Wheat closed ½ cent higher ($5.24), March 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.40 ½) & July 3 cents higher ($5.59 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 493.7 K T. old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly wheat export sales come in at the high end of trade guesstimates. The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange (BAGE) suggests the Argentine wheat crop is 18.8 M T. down from their previous estimate of 19.8 M T. and down from the most recent USDA estimate of 20.5 M T. A weaker looking US Dollar also lends support. Early in the day session wheat prices did some decent probing of suspected technical support levels as European prices were moving lower. We eventually ran out of sellers and short covering ensued along with some intra-day bottom picking.

Advertised basis levels for standard protein wheat continue to see few if any changes. SRW at the Gulf has s soft look to it while HRW at the Gulf continues to show a firm look. Spreads in Chgo ran fractionally mixed for the current year while the current year gains on next year’s crop. KC spreads saw similar price action.

Chgo wheat prices have been trending lower for the past 9 days. The same holds true for KC prices. Today’s lows represent some good looking short term support in as they were former resistance levels. My idea is sideways to higher for the next few days.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/01

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.04 – $5.16

Dec KC Wheat: $4.15 – $4.27

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.