Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 3 cents lower ($5.32), March 3 ¾ cents lower ($5.23 ¾) & July 2 ¾ cents lower ($5.30)

December KC Wheat closed 5 cents lower ($4.20 ¼), March 5 cents lower ($4.35 ½) & July 5 cents lower ($4.49 ¾)

December Mpls Wheat closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($4.98), March 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.13 ¾) & July 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.32 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 228.1 K T. old crop vs. 300-700 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

As far as I’m concerned weekly wheat export sales can be best described as puny. Then again recent efforts to rally have not been about demand for US wheat. US wheat origin for export continues to be a secondary market behind the EU and the Black Sea. I find it interesting that the wheat market has been unable to garner much support from the recent break in the US Dollar. Tomorrow morning Canada will update their past season’s production data. Trade estimates are not looking for much of a change from their September estimates; 32.6 M T. vs. 32.5 M T.

I’m not seeing any changes in the advertised basis levels for standard protein wheat. I’m told farmer selling remains minimal. It looks like the Gulf may be easing for HRW while SRW runs unchanged. We’ve yet to see any deliveries against the Dec Chgo contract. March forward spreads, however, are widening with the flat price selling. KC spreads ran mostly unchanged on the day.

Support for March Chgo wheat is almost 10 cents wide; $5.22 down to $5.12.  I’m showing trendline support coming in around $5.12. I’m not sure March KC wheat can get much more sideways than it currently is; $4.50 down to $4.20. Mpls March wheat continues to be a dismal performer as it has been in a minor upflagging formation for about two weeks now. On Nov 25th it made an interim low against $5.06 and the extent of the upflagging has been no better than $5.20. The Nov 25th low was within 6 cents of the contract low; so not a very spiffy looking chart since then.

Daily Support & Resistance for 12/06

March Chgo Wheat: $5.18 – $5.30 (?)

March KC Wheat: $4.30 – $4.42

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.