Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed ½ cent lower ($5.32), March 1 ¾ cents lower ($5.22 ¾) & July 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.28 ¾)

December KC Wheat closed 3 ½ cents lower ($4.11 ½), March 5 cents lower ($4.26) & July 5 cents lower ($4.42 ½)

December Mpls Wheat closed unchanged ($4.97), March 1 ¼ cents higher ($5.13 ¼) & July 1 ¼ cents higher ($5.31 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 313.8 K T. vs. 250-450 K T. expected

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat

US wheat futures continue to spin their wheels going nowhere fast. Weekly export inspections were no big deal then again US wheat exports are a secondary market behind the EU and the Black Sea. It was reported earlier in the day that Russian wheat prices are currently at season’s highs. That may have stabilized US wheat futures for a minute or two. It seems the biggest feature of the day was some inter-market spread re-alignment. Chgo continues to gain on KC while Mpls is rebounding vs. both KC and Chgo.

The interior cash wheat markets for both SRW and HRW continue to show a firm bias. I’m told this is all about the lack of movement not market making demand. The Gulf basis for HRW has softened noticeably over the past few days while the SRW basis is fully steady. The March forward spreads in Chgo saw fractional losses on the day while KC spreads ran fractionally mixed in the old crop while old crop eases vs. the new crop.

March Chgo registers an inside day of Friday. Congestive type support runs from $5.20 down to $5.10. Daily price charts are showing an easing type trend while the shorter-term inter-day charts read middle of the road. Tomorrow’s USDA Supply-Demand update is expected to show minimal changes for the US carryout while the World carryout is expected to decline (-2.0 M T.) referencing the drop in Australian output. I still think the best MO for trading Chgo wheat is to fade short term inter-day extremes for short term trading opportunities. Its unfortunate they read middle of the road right now.

Daily Support & Resistance for 12/10

March Chgo Wheat: $5.15 – $5.30

March KC Wheat: $4.20 – $4.36


The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.