Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 8 ½ cents higher ($5.39 ¼), March 11 cents higher ($5.30 ¼) & July 10 cents higher ($5.36)

December KC Wheat closed 12 cents higher ($4.27 ½), March 12 cents higher ($4.42 ¾) & July 11 ½ cents higher ($4.57)

December Mpls Wheat closed unchanged ($5.00 ½), March 4 ¾ cents higher ($5.23) & July 4 cents higher ($5.40)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 502.7 K T. old crop vs. 200-450 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Strong looking weekly export sales coupled with the news from Washington that suggested we are close to a trade deal with China had prices rallying from the get-go on the re-opening Thursday morning. Today’s rally was initially led by the “hard” varieties as they were most of the weekly export sales. Chgo kicked in shortly afterward. In summation KC was the upside leader followed by Chgo while Mpls brought up the rear. Like corn I question just how much wheat China could take from the US given their stockpiles. Four years they imported 4.4 M T.; currently the USDA has them down for 3.2 M T.

The Ohio River basis jumps 15 cents overnight. Locations elsewhere for SRW run unchanged. Advertised basis for HRW is unchanged. Both varieties continue to show basis levels at the Gulf. Once again I’m told this is about slow movement not necessarily strong demand. Don’t forget we still have quality issues. March forward bull spreads were working in Chgo and in KC.

The early low in March Chgo wheat challenged trendline support and followed with a noticeable outside day to the upside. I question just how high wheat can go but it sure looks like we’re going to challenge recent highs if not higher. KC wheat has been in a much more defined trading range but after today I must think the high side ($4.50) is going to get a stiff challenge. A conclusive close above $4.50 (March KC) could get us something closer to the $4.70 level just based on short covering.

Daily Support & Resistance for Dec 13th

March Chgo Wheat: $5.25 – $5.38

March KC Wheat: $4.35 – $4.51

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