Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed ¼ cent higher ($5.50 ¼), May ½ cent lower ($5.53 ¼) & July ¾ cent lower ($5.56 ¼)

March KC Wheat closed 2 ¼ cents lower ($4.75), May 2 ¼ cents lower ($4.83) & July 1 ¾ cents lower ($4.90 ¾)

March Mpls Wheat closed 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.46 ¾), May 1 ½ cents lower ($5.56) & July 1 ½ cents lower ($5.63 ½)

The US wheat markets continue to feel a fair amount of push-pull. The tensions in the Mid-East are bearish as that area of the world buys a lot of wheat. The Chgo market (SRW) will still deal with the quality issues around the past season’s SRW crop. The KC market (HRW) is probably the closest of the US markets to being price competitive in the World export trade. Not much change is expected for the US carryout projection on the 10th; down just 5 million bu. the bigger items of focus will be the World carryout projections (down 2.18 M T. is the guess) and the US winter wheat seedings (expected to be down nearly 500 K acres).

The advertised interior basis levels for standard protein wheat run unchanged. This holds true for the Gulf as well. Hefty premiums continue to be bid for quality SRW. Chgo spreads saw fractional improvements while KC spreads saw fractional declines.

Chgo wheat remains in a well defined channel with a longer term bias higher. The KC market appears to be backing and filling into the congestive support that was created in mid-December. For what it is worth index fund rebalancing starts tomorrow. I’m told this will feature buying KC and selling smaller amounts of Chgo.

Daily Support & Resistance for Jan 8th   

March Chgo Wheat: $5.45 – $5.60

March KC Wheat: $4.69 – $4.85

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