Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 6 ¼ cents higher ($5.68 ½), May 5 ½ cents higher ($5.70 ¼) & July 5 cents higher ($5.71 ¾)

March KC Wheat closed 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.97), May 4 cents higher ($5.04 ½) & July 4 cents higher ($5.12 ¼)

March Mpls Wheat closed ¾ cent higher ($5.56), May ½ cent higher ($5.64 ¼) & July ¼ cent higher ($5.71)

Overnight Egypt buys 240 K T. of wheat – 180 K T. Russian, 60 K T. Romanian – average FOB price $236.37 ($232.23 last week) – Average C&F price $249.61 ($245.71 last week)

Lots of World wheat business around, Egypt and Turkey just to name a few, buoys US prices higher as they continue to pay up vs. previous purchases. Word out of Russia has them contemplating export quotas beyond their Eurasian Economic Union. Comparing what Russia has exported to date vs. what they said total exports would be this does not appear to be very restrictive. The bottom line continues to be that as World wheat prices ratchet higher the US follows.

Basis levels for standard protein wheat, both in the interior and at the Gulf, run unchanged with a strong undertone. Hefty premiums continue to be bid for quality SRW. The nearby March/May Chgo spread closes at its second best level dating back to last summer. KC intra-spreads are nowhere near as strong as they have been mostly sideways for the past month or so.

March Chgo wheat comes within a ½ cent of its June 27th interim high. Today’s close is the best we have seen for the current March contract dating back to Dec of 2018. Weekly continuation charts show we’ll still have to deal with the August of 2018 interim high at $5.93. March KC wheat flirts with the $5.00 level and appears to be losing some of its vim and vigor. My bottom line is I’m not willing to chase the current rally without seeing some sort of a correction first.

Daily Support & Resistance for Jan 15th   

March Chgo Wheat: $5.60 – $5.74 (?)

March KC Wheat: $4.90 – $5.04


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