March Chgo Wheat closed 9 cents lower ($4.80 ¾), May 8 cents lower ($4.84 ¾) & July 8 ¼ cents lower ($4.88 ¼)
March KC Wheat closed 10 ¾ cents lower ($4.50), May 10 ¼ cents lower ($4.58) & July 9 ¾ cents lower ($4.68 ½)
Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat – Overnight Egypt buys 360 K T. of wheat – 180 K T. French, 60 K T. Russian, 60 K T. Ukraine, 60 K T. Romania – US wheat was not offered
Average Trade Estimates for USDA Outlook Forum – Wheat 2019/20 – 47.196 million planted acres – Yield 47.7 bpa – Production 1.904 billion bu. – Ending Stocks – 960 million bu.
The downside carnage continues as US wheat is not even offered at the overnight Egyptian tender. Our competitions’ prices continue to swoon lower. US wheat futures have been down for 4 days losing nearly 50 cents a bushel. I never had the spec trade long so one has to think that the majority of the selling is new shorts. Just when this spiral lower ends remains to be seen. I’m not sure the USDA can say anything over the next couple of days that will prompt a reversal. My thought is the plunge will end when an oversold status is attained and we’re not there yet.
Interior cash wheat markets are quiet. If producers were reluctant sellers 50 cents ago (just 4 days ago) they sure aren’t going to be selling now. Wheat spreads are easing under the current wave of flat price selling.
New contract lows and new contract low closes for both Chgo and KC. Mpls wheat is still about 8 cents from its contract lows but the March contract did register a new contract low close. The price action continues to be horrendous looking and we’re not yet oversold on a daily basis. Attempts to rally during the session alleviate both the intra-day and inter-day oversold. I think we’re looking at one of the instances where prices going lower than what we feel reasonable.
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/21
Mch Chgo Wheat: $4.72 – $4.85 ($4.90)
Mch KC Wheat: $4.43 – $4.56 ($4.60)
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