Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.57 ¼), May ¾ cent higher ($5.54 ½) & July 1 cent higher ($5.54 ½)

March KC Wheat closed ½ cent higher ($4.67 ¼), May ½ cent higher ($4.74) & July ¼ cent higher ($4.80 ¾)

March Mpls Wheat closed 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.31 ¾), May 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.41 ¾) & July 1 ¾ cents lower ($5.50 ¾)

US wheat futures made their day’s highs in the overnight session prompted by Chinese wheat futures rallying to levels not seen since May earlier this year. A good portion of the day session was spent giving back most of the nighttime rally. European wheat futures were able to steady up from their recent sell-off. Black Sea prices continue to look a bit heavy. Weather forecasters are suggesting beneficial moisture for the somewhat dry Black Sea crop as well as similar moisture for the HRW regions of the US Southern Plains.

The interior wheat basis sees no changes with their advertised basis for standard protein wheat. The basis for SRW milling stays quite firm. The export basis for both HRW and SRW appear to be easing. Chgo spreads continues to be firm when involving the nearby March contract. The nearby March/May spread posted a new contact high and close. KC spreads continue with the sideways motion.

I’m told the February seasonal tendency for US wheat futures favors the downside. Today’s performance fits that bill as we were unable to sustain the stout looking nighttime rally. Overall Chgo futures continue to trade inside the month’s old up channel. Trendline support continues to show up against the mid-low $5.40’s. If you are bullishly inclined I doubt you will want to see a close much below that level. The same holds true for the KC March if it closes below yesterday’s low, $4.58 ½.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/05

March Chgo Wheat – $5.50 – $5.66

March KC Wheat – $4.60 – $4.76

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.