Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 4 ¾ cents higher ($5.62), May 4 ½ cents higher ($5.59) & July 3 ¾ cents higher ($5.58 ¼)

March KC Wheat closed 6 ½ cents higher ($4.73 ¾), May 6 ¼ cents higher ($4.80 ¼) & July 6 ½ cents higher ($4.87 ¼)

March Mpls Wheat closed 3 ½ cents higher ($5.35 ¼), May 3 cents higher ($5.44 ¾) & July 2 ¾ cents higher ($5.53 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-700 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

The competitions’ prices move higher on Wednesday and US prices follow suit. Other than the ongoing tightness for SRW I’m not sure there is much else out there. Today’s strengthening of the US Dollar, if it follows through, will continue to act as an inhibiting factor to future market making US wheat business.

Interior wheat basis continues to run unchanged vs. recent days. The export basis for HRW holds firm while the SRW export basis appears to be slipping. Cash wheat selling from the producer continues to be minimal. Chgo spreads continue to show a firm bias while KC spreads continue to flatline.

The recent day-to-day flat price trade appears to be mostly technical in nature. Chgo wheat continues to trade inside an up channel that has been in place dating back to early September. If prices are inclined to moved higher decent looking resistance comes into focus in the mid to low $5.70’s (March Chgo). The same can be said for the mid to low $4.80’s for KC wheat (March)

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/06

March Chgo Wheat – $5.54 – $5.70

March KC Wheat – $4.66 – $4.78

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.