Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 11 cents lower ($5.29 ¼), May 8 ¼ cents lower ($5.27 ½) & July 6 ½ cents lower ($5.29)

March KC Wheat closed 9 cents lower ($4.43 ¼), May 7 ½ cents lower ($4.51 ¾) & July 7 ½ cents lower ($4.58 ¾)

March Mpls Wheat closed 7 ½ cents lower ($5.07 ¾), May 6 cents lower ($5.24) & July 6 ¼ cents lower ($5.33 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 381.8 K T. old crop vs. 400-600 K T. expected – 68.1 K T. new crop vs. 25-100 K T. expected

Weekly export sales were deemed as dismal vs. expectations. The International Grains Council suggests we will see record world wheat production in the coming year (thank you very much India). The spread of the coronavirus continues to prompt fears of a slowing global economy/global trade. For what it is worth our competitors’ wheat prices are moving south as well. If global production is going to be as great as the IGC suggests that means greater competition for market share and that means lower prices.

Advertised interior wheat basis levels continue to run unchanged. This holds true for the export basis levels as well. Chgo spreads were under pressure from fears that someone will deliver something other than SRW. Both hard varieties (winter and spring) are acceptable for delivery against the Chgo contract. KC spreads saw the March dipping while the May forward ran unchanged.

New lows and new low closes for the sell-off that started in mid-January. I would like to think there is no more than 10-15 cents left to the downside on this current break and that is a measurement from the most recent attempt to correct back higher (May Chgo). I’m thinking the May KC should begin to realize support as it nears the $4.40 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/28

May Chgo Wheat – $5.20 – $5.34

May KC Wheat – $4.44 – $4.59

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