Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 10 ½ cents lower ($5.29 ¾), July 10 cents lower ($5.30 ½) & Dec 10 cents lower ($5.44 ½)

May KC Wheat closed 9 ½ cents lower ($4.70), July 10 ¼ cents lower ($4.76 ¾) & Dec 9 ¾ cents lower ($4.95)

May Mpls Wheat closed 7 ¾ cents lower ($5.06 ¼), July 6 ¾ cents lower ($5.20 ¼) & Dec 6 ¼ cents lower ($5.42 ¼)

Egypt announces another overnight tender for optional origin wheat – Overnight Egypt buys 240 K T. wheat (180 K T. French, 60 K T. Russian)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 178.3 K T. old crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected – 419.4 K T. new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected

World wheat prices stay firm while US wheat futures stay sloppy. The US had the lowest FOB offer to Egypt but once again high freight out of the US kept the US participation out of contention. New crop wheat sales were solid looking but unfortunately the spec is long the old crop. For the time being forecasts for new crop wheat development are not all that threatening here in the US nor abroad.

Advertised basis levels for standard protein continue to run unchanged. I’m told the rally we saw earlier this week did entice some movement. Spreads in Chgo were relatively stable while in KC May gains on the spread while July loses to its forward contracts.

The spec rushes in and then he rushes out. That best describes this week’s trade. Monday looked like were ready to extend higher while the following three days said “wrong”. If one believes what the charts are trying to suggest the entire last half March rally will be erased. Its hard to believe given the strength in overseas prices.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/17

July Chgo Wheat – $5.23 – $5.38

July KC Wheat – $4.72 – $4.85

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.