Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 2 cents lower ($5.06 ¾), Sept 2 ¼ cents lower ($5.10 ½) & Dec 1 ¾ cents lower ($5.19 ¾)

July KC Wheat closed 2 ¾ cents higher ($4.47 ¼), Sept 2 ¼ cents higher ($4.54) & Dec 1 ¾ cents higher ($4.66)

July Mpls Wheat closed 4 ¾ cents higher ($5.17 ¾), Sept 4 ½ cents higher ($5.28 ¾) & Dec 3 ¾ cents higher ($5.41 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 457.7 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected

USDA reports the US winter wheat crop is now rated 54% GE (+2%) vs. 53% GE expected vs. 61% year ago

USDA reports that 81% of the intended spring wheat crop has been planted vs. 77% expected vs. 90% 5-year average

It was a two-sided trade for the Chgo wheat market, mostly higher for KC and Mpls. There also a fair amount of inter-market spreading between the varieties and Chgo was on the sell side receiving end. Overall I thought the news of the day was mostly friendly – Russia lowers its wheat crop another 1.0 M T., Ukraine lowered its winter wheat crop 5.0 M T., and last but not least the sharply lower US Dollar. I did not think weekly export inspections were any big deal.

Interior cash wheat prices continue to run unchanged for standard protein. The respective export markets run unchanged as well. Both KC and Mpls spreads showed a bullish bias while Chgo spreads went the other way.

July Chgo wheat chart is trying to suggest $5.00-$4.95 is support. July KC is trying to suggest $4.40 is support. Unfortunately US wheat futures are a follower of what happens with overseas prices. I have to view last week’s weekly highs as the new upside pivot points. Given current weekly crop ratings and the lack of US business I’m not sure these highs will be taken out anytime soon. For the near term I’ll revert back to fading short term inter-day extremes for short term trading opportunities until the trend becomes better defined.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/27

July Chgo Wheat: $5.00 – $5.15

July KC Wheat: $4.40 – $4.55

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.