Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 2 ¾ cents higher ($5.04 ¾), Sept 2 cents higher ($5.09 ¾) & Dec ¾ cent higher ($5.17 ½)

July KC Wheat closed 2 ¾ cents lower ($4.45 ¾), Sept 2 ¾ cents lower ($4.54 ¼) & Dec 2 ½ cents lower ($4.67)

July Mpls Wheat closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.15), Sept 1 ¼ cents higher ($5.26 ½) & Dec ¼ cent higher ($5.38 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 444.0 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected

USDA rates winter condition at 50% GE (-1%) vs. 51% expected vs. 64% year ago – Harvested – 15% vs. 17% expected vs. 15% 5-year average

USDA rates US spring wheat condition at 81% GE (-1%) vs. 82% expected vs. 67% year ago.

The ongoing HRW harvest keeps KC wheat under wraps while Chgo wheat is able to stand in vs. last week’s low. I did not think the weekly export inspections were any big deal. Given the break of the US Dollar one would think the US wheat for export would have better interest but so far I’m not seeing it. The EU continues to trim its soft wheat crop and I think that was one reason why Chgo was able to stand in today. It should be noted that the idea of EU losing further crop size has stopped given recent rains in some of their driest areas. The next crop watch area will be the Black Sea region as heat and dryness has resumed.

The interior SRW basis remains quiet while the HRW interior basis remains under pressure from the ongoing harvest. The Gulf firms slightly for HRW as harvest in its immediate area (Texas) has moved beyond the 50% completions and Oklahoma is not from its 50% completion rate. SRW at the Gulf remains motionless reflecting the lack of export interest for this variety. Spreads in Chgo are rallying out of their recent hole while KC spreads remain quiet and soft.

July Chgo wheat has moved into a minor holding pattern just above the mid-$4.90’s. This level has held July Chgo wheat back in mid-March, mid-May and again just this past Friday. I would like to think July KC wheat will continue to hold against the $4.40 level but so far the price action leaves me wanting.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/16

July Chgo Wheat: $5.00 – $5.12

July KC Wheat: $4.42 – $4.55

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