Weekly export sales were okay but then again the recent rally has not been about demand but rather the fate of the new crop. Forecasts remain dry for the US winter wheat areas and the Russian winter wheat areas. France is dealing with excessive moisture hampering its winter wheat sowing. Ukraine has received some moisture recently but more is needed. Forecasts for the US and Russian winter wheat areas do not see much moisture anytime too soon. I have to think if the USDA report is construed as bearish we will see a big break but as long as forecasts for the aforementioned areas continue to be dry eventual support will be realized.
Now we sit and wait to see what the USDA gives tomorrow at 11:00 AM central time.
Trade expectations are as follows vs. last month – US carryout 887 million bu. vs. 925, World carryout 317.23 M T. vs. 319.37 M T.
Daily Support & Resistance – 10/09
Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.75 – $6.15
Dec KC Wheat: $5.10 – $5.52
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of eclipse the high side of expectations.