Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Dec Chgo Wheat closed 21 ½ cents higher ($6.18 ½), March 18 ¾ cents higher ($6.19 ½) & July 11 ¾ cents higher ($6.06 ¾)

Dec KC Wheat closed 22 ¾ cents higher ($5.58), March 22 cents higher ($5.66 ¼) & July 21 ½ cents higher ($5.76 ½)

Dec Mpls Wheat closed 12 ¾ cents higher ($5.58 ¾), March 12 ½ cents higher ($5.71 ½) & July 10 ¼ cents higher ($5.86 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Despite rains being in the forecasts for the dry winter wheat areas of the US Plains and the dry Black Sea winter wheat areas US wheat futures powered to new highs for the current rally today. As far as the beneficial forecasts are concerned the adage has become “I’ll believe it when I see it”. Technical buying was noted midday when prices went back up through the nighttime highs after selling off by 10 cents to start the day session. World prices remain strong. The Rosario Exchange in Argentina lowered their crop to 17.0 M T. due to their ongoing dryness. They are saying what rain that is appearing now is too little too late.

The advertised interior wheat basis levels for standard protein remain steady/quiet. I’m still trying to figure out the jump in the SRW basis at the Gulf the other night. The HRW export basis appears to have stabilized after its recent easiness. Bull spreads were working at all three exchanges mostly reflecting the big flat price buying. Maybe I’m out in left field but I haven’t seen what I call market making demand for US wheat.

Nothing bearish looking with the price action here. I’m not sure its totally justified but when the funds take over I’m not standing in front of it. For the time being the technical make-up of the market remains quite solid looking. The recent attempts to correct followed by today’s price is just too tough to ignore.

Daily Support & Resistance 10/16

Dec Chgo Wheat: $6.05 – ???

Dec KC Wheat: $5.45 – $5.70

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