Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Dec Chgo Wheat closed 6 cents lower ($5.91 ¾), March 7 ¾ cents lower ($5.98 ¾), & July 5 ¼ cents lower ($6.00)

Dec KC Wheat closed 9 cents lower ($5.48 ¾), March 9 ¼ cents lower ($5.57) & July 9 cents lower ($5.67)

Dec Mpls Wheat closed 4 cents lower ($5.46 ¼), March 4 cents lower ($5.63 ¼) & July 4 cents lower ($5.79 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 192.4 K T. old crop vs. 250-500 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

The highlight of the weekly wheat export sales report was China buying 125 K T. white wheat. The lowlight of the sales report was the total was only 192.4 K T. The lowlight of the sales report dominated the day’s trade. Russia talks about a decent area of recently planted winter wheat failed to germinate and is now sitting under a layer of snow. The US HRW winter areas continue to stay dry as it is not far from entering dormancy.

Interior cash wheat prices continue to remain quiet with no change being noted. The Gulf market for SRW continues to edge higher while the export market for HRW remains quiet with a soft tone. The nearby Chgo spread is firm while the old crop/new crop spreads take a hit. KC spreads saw a similar scenario.

Chgo wheat charts continue in a sideways to lower well defined channel. KC charts are more sideways featuring a double top ($5.86 March) followed by some triangulation (higher lows vs. lower highs). Technical trend indicators read sideways for both markets. I’ll continue to approach US wheat futures fading short term inter-day extremes for short term trading opportunities.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/20

March Chgo Wheat: $5.92 – $6.04

March KC Wheat: $5.50 – $5.64

 The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.