Dec Chgo Wheat closed 13 ¼ cents higher ($5.77), March 13 ¼ cents higher ($5.83 ¼), & July 9 ½ cents higher ($5.83 ¾)
Dec KC Wheat closed 14 cents higher ($5.50 ¼), March 14 cents higher ($5.51) & July 12 ½ cents higher ($5.58 ¼)
Dec Mpls Wheat closed 13 cents higher ($5.41 ¾), March 12 ¼ cents higher ($5.55 ½) & July 11 cents higher ($5.71 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-550 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Other than some short term technical considerations I saw no fundamental rationale for today’s rally. Interior cash wheat markets are quiet as are the US export markets. What export business that is out there involving the US is no more than routine. Weekly export sales for wheat are expected to be no big deal. If I had to guess the exuberance behind today’s rally had more to do with the corn and soybean markets. It is these two markets that have some potential for higher prices. Go back to the last wheat supply/demand report; there was nothing bullish to it yet the market rallied. It rallied on the coattails of sharply higher corn and soy prices. Are the buyers today expecting that to happen again? Expectations for tomorrow’s wheat Supply-Demand date are not much; the domestic carryout is expected to be basically unchanged maybe down a couple of million bu. and the World projected carryout is expected to increase by 1.0 M T.
Chgo wheat charts remain in a downtrend but today’s interim reversal (outside day with a higher close above previous day’s high) is trying to suggest the market may be in line for some resistance testing. The best looking resistance in my opinion is close to the $6.00 level (March). Support is closer to the $5.60-$5.50 level.
Daily Support & Resistance – 12/10
March Chgo Wheat: $5.71 – $5.95
March KC Wheat: $5.39 – $5.60
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