March Chgo Wheat closed 5 ¾ cents higher ($6.17), May 4 ½ cents higher ($6.16 ¾) & July 3 ½ cents higher ($6.09 ½)
March KC Wheat closed 4 ¾ cents higher ($5.79 ¼), May 4 ¼ cents higher ($5.82 ½) & July 4 ¼ cents higher ($5.84 ¾)
March Mpls Wheat closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($5.71 ½), May 1 ½ cents higher ($5.80 ¼) & July 1 cent higher ($5.87 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected
The only thing I can be sure of here is the volatility. The price action was advertising ugliness in the night session and the day session brought us sunshine. I’m not seeing much in the way of business for the US. World markets seem quiet right now as everyone is watching Russia which I don’t fully understand. For the time being I’m considering Russia is out of the market considering their export tax and quota beginning February 15th. I’m not seeing anyone rushing for Russian wheat ahead of these enactments. Some will say that means better business for the competition. The problem with that is I’m not seeing anyone doing any noticeable business. I’m going to write off today’s positive performance as part of the general optimism around the US Ag markets.
Cash wheat markets (basis) remain quiet/steady whether its for domestic usage or for exports. Bull spreads were working noticeably in Chgo just fractionally in KC.
Its hard to ignore the positive price action we’re seeing in the US wheat futures. I don’t fully understand it from a fundamental perspective but the price action doesn’t lie; this market wants to go higher. I still think the wheat market is a crowd follower but in this instance it seems the crowd wants to go higher.
Daily Support & Resistance – 12/23
March Chgo Wheat : $6.08 – $6.24 (6.30)
March KC Wheat: $5.70 – $5.88 (?)
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.