March Chgo Wheat closed 11 ¼ cents lower ($6.43 ¾), May 10 cents lower ($6.50 ¼) & July 7 ½ cents lower ($6.42 ½)
March KC Wheat closed 10 ½ cents lower ($6.14 ¼), May 10 ½ cents lower ($6.23 ¼) & July 9 cents lower ($6.28 ¾)
March Mpls Wheat closed 2 ¾ cents lower ($6.28 ¼), May 5 ¼ cents lower ($6.33 ½) & July 5 ¼ cents lower ($6.41 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 272.8 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected
Poor weekly export sales last week coupled with poor weekly export inspections this week says it all – US wheat prices are too high. Its been two weeks since the deep freeze in the central southern US Plains. I did see the Kansas winter wheat ratings drop from last week; 37% GE vs. 40% last week, 35% Fair vs. 34% last week and 28% P-VP vs. 26% last week. As we move forward through the month of March hopefully we’ll be able to get a better handle on the freeze’s impact.
I’m not seeing much in the way of cash wheat movement. The SRW interior basis has a mixed look as does the interior HRW basis. The export basis for both varieties is not seeing much change. Spreads in Chgo are soft all the way out to May 2022 and the same can be said for the KC spreads.
Chgo May wheat from last Wednesday’s high to today’s low we’ve seen a 40 cent decline. KC May wheat has declined 43 cents in the same time frame. Give me another 10 cents down and it should be good for a decent bounce. With the unknown around the possible freeze damage I don’t want to chase the break.
Daily Support & Resistance – 03/02
May Chgo Wheat : $6.45 – $6.60
May KC Wheat: $6.15 – $6.35
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