Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 18 ¼ cents higher ($6.48), July 16 ¾ cents higher ($6.50 ¼) & Sept 17 cents higher ($6.52)

May KC Wheat closed 18 ¾ cents higher ($6.03 ½), July 18 ¾ cents higher ($6.11 ½) & Sept 18 cents higher ($6.17)

May Mpls Wheat closed 12 cents higher ($6.61), July 13 cents higher ($6.69) & Sept 12 ¼ cents higher ($6.73 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 300-550 K T. expected

Wheat traders got really excited this morning. In addition to what they have been trading recently (dryness in the US Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, parts of Europe and the continued lower US dollar) now France talks about possible frost damage. They do say it’s a bit early to tell but the possibility is there. There is also some chatter about a cold snap here in the US but I have to keep telling myself it’s only mid-April and weather like this occurs. Long story short – Wheat traders are very excitable people. Going forward as long as there are these concerns with the new crop the bias will be for higher prices.

Interior cash wheat markets don’t do much while the HRW rail to the gulf is improving. KC spreads see minor improvement (fractionally) while Chgo spreads see the May trying to come back vs. the July. I don’t think it would take much to see this spread come back to the 10 cent over level but it will take the delivery game to achieve this.

Daily Support & Resistance – 04/15

July Chgo: $6.40 – $6.65

July KC Wheat: $6.00 – $6.24

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.