July Chgo Wheat closed 7 ½ cents lower ($6.99 ¾), Sept 7 cents lower ($6.99 ½), & Dec 7 cents lower ($7.02 ¾)
July KC Wheat closed 5 ½ cents lower ($6.52 ¼), Sept 5 ½ cents lower ($6.57 ½) & Dec 6 ¼ cents lower ($6.64 ¼)
July Mpls Wheat closed 25 ¾ cents lower ($7.15), Sept 25 ½ cents lower ($7.21) & Dec 23 ¾ cents lower ($7.26 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 658.5 K T. vs. 300-600 K T. expected
Wheat prices stay under pressure led by the Mpls market. Weather forecasts suggests beneficial moisture moving into the northern Plains by this weekend, early next week. We’ve seen forecasts like this before and none have come to fruition. This time I’m seeing more forecast models in agreement. The KC and Chgo markets stay under pressure from beneficial weather in the southern Plains that should finish off that crop in fine form. It has to be noted that the Mpls market lost far more ground vs. Chgo and KC. The dryness threat to the European crop appears to have come and gone. From what I hear Russia has good areas and not so good areas. Weekly export inspections were good vs. expectations but we have to realize the marketing year will come to an end in another two weeks.
Interior cash wheat prices are mostly steady. HRW producers appears willing to wait for a better indication of crop size (getting close) before they initiate any new selling. The Gulf basis for both HRW and SRW remain quiet.
Last week you heard me talk about the double top in both Chgo and KC. The neckline of those tops were tested with Friday’s early rally. They held and prices turned south. My focus will continue to be on those double tops and their resistance levels.
The trade is expecting to see the spring planting rate at 86% completed. The USDA reports that 85% of the spring crop has been planted vs. the 5-year average of 71%. Emergence is 47% vs. the 5-year average of 36%. Winter wheat is now rated 48% GE (-1%). The trade was expecting to see 50% GE. Winter wheat is now 53% headed vs. the 5-year average of 58%
Daily Support & Resistance – 05/18
July Chgo Wheat: $6.90 (?) – $7.18
July KC Wheat: $6.40 – $6.70
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.