Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 24 ½ cents higher ($8.03), March 24 ¾ cents higher ($8.15) & May 23 ½ cents higher ($8.17 ½)

December KC Wheat closed 24 cents higher ($8.17 ½), March 23 ¾ cents higher ($8.21 ¾) & May 22 ¾ cents higher ($8.21 ½)

December Mpls Wheat closed 22 ½ cents higher ($10.46 ¼), March 23 ½ cents higher ($10.36 ¾) & May 22 cents higher ($10.15 ¾)

Flat price wheat zooms higher on follow through buying from yesterday and Russia announcing they will enact new export curbs after the first of the year. Russia also talks about revising its export tax formulas higher if global cash prices move appreciably higher.

Interior SRW basis levels don’t do much. The HRW basis in Kansas is moving higher while Oklahoma prices are steady. Export basis for both varieties are steady but firm. Chgo spreads saw Dec lose fractionally to the March while old crop gains on the new crop. In KC we saw the Dec gain fractionally on the March and old crop gain on the new crop. In Mpls the Dec is still liquidating down vs. the March. The involvement in Mpls wheat has been so strong this season it takes a while to liquidate down due to this market’s lack of liquidity.

Hi Ho Silver (I mean wheat). Dec Chgo wheat comes within 3 ¼ cents of its contract high, March within 3 ½ cents. New contract high closes were registered. Dec KC wheat pumps out new contract highs as well as new contract high closes. This holds true for the March KC contract as well. Mpls has become a laggard in this regard but that’s due to the heavy liquidation it saw last week. Overall wheat prices still appear situated to move higher but be careful about chasing rallies. Corrections will occur from time to time such as we saw last week. Shorter term intra-day and inter-day charts have developed a modest degree of overbought.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/11

Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.90 – $8.10 (?)

Dec KC Wheat: $8.05 – ???

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